How long before we double or triple?
A common question whenever we are dealing with a quantity experiencing constant growth;
i.e., the growth rate remains constant over time, is after how many growth periods that quantity
will double? For instance:
- If my company grows at x percent per year, when will it have doubled?
- If I take on a debt at x percent annual interest, and I do not pay down my debt, when will it
have doubled?
- If my farm animals eat this amount of food per year and my herd grows x percent per year, when
will the herd consume double the amount of food?
- If I want to double my revenue in 10 years, how much will my revenue —on average—
have to grow to make that target? (about 7%).
The formula for computing the so-called
doubling period depends on the type of growth we are dealing with:
- For so-called discrete growth processes; i.e., processes where growth occurs
once per period; e.g., interest being paid out on a bank account once per month or year, the formula
is:
T = ln(2) / ln(1 + r)*, where
- T: the number of periods needed to double the process starting value,
- r: the process growth rate
- For so-called continuous growth processes; i.e., processes where growth occurs
all the time; e.g., business or organic growth, the formula is:
The '2' in the numerator of these formulas represents the 'doubling.' To compute the
tripling, quadrupling, or other start value multiplier, we use the associated numbers instead (3
for tripling, 4 for quadrupling, etc. Hence, we can generalize the above formulas
as follows:
- For discrete growth processes:
T = ln(m) / ln(1 + r), where:
- m: the desired multiplier of the starting value.
- For continuous growth processes:
We can, of course, also compute the value of a process after it has grown a certain number of periods:
- For discrete growth processes with growth rate r:
Vt = V0 × (1 + r)t, where
- Vt: value of the process after t periods.
- Vo: process starting value (t = 0).
- For continuous growth processes with growth rate r:
Below you can play with these as follows:
- Select the type of process to model: Discrete or Continuous.
- Specify a Start value (V0); i.e., the value the process has before it starts growing.
- Specify a Multiplier (m) value.
- Specify a Low and High growth rate.
- Specify for how many growth rates (n), equally spaced between the low and high
growth rates, to compute the growth trajectory.
- Hit Compute!
* For percentage-based growth rates; e.g., 5% or 10%, use percent / 100;
i.e., .05 or .10.
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